Alou looks like he'll be back when the Mets hit the Valley of the Sun

So Moises Alou had his MRI yesterday on the ankle that turned bum at the end of his rehab and it turned out negative. So it looks like he'll be back soon. Possibly for this weekend's series here in lovely Arizona. I can't wait for the Mets to come into town. I've already got tickets to all three games.

Alou should give the Mets a nice little shot in the arm when he returns, but I stand by my recommendation in yesterday's posting: if you can get Xavier Nady for a decent price, do it.

Nady liked playing in New York, put up very good numbers here, and he's the kind of guy who fits into the roll we tried to fill with Brady Clark. Now, the only problem with bringing Nady in is that he would want to start. It would be hard to start Nady over a healthy Alou - Alou's bat still has more in it on an average day than Nady's. But if Nady would accept a backup/platoon role and maybe learn to play first base, it would be a tremendous help for the Mets.

In other news: Every time I think David Wright has broken out of this funk he falls down again. Last night's game winning single in the bottom of the eleventh might do something to wake him up. With Wright struggling, Beltran not at his best, and Delgado trying to remember how to hit, the Mets line up does not look as formidable as it once did. Now, all three of these guys should get right at some point this season - certainly Wright and Beltran will - but will they all do it at the same time?

Maybe visiting Arizona is the answer.

In the last three seasons, the Mets are 11-1 when playing at Bank One Ballpark/Chase Field. They've outscored the DBacks 97-28 in that time span and I've seen every one of these games in person save one in '06.

But this year its a little different. This year when the Mets come to town the DBacks will own the best record in baseball. They will boast one of the best pitching staffs in the league and one of the highest scoring offenses.

Personally, I predicted that the Diamondbacks would win 100 games this year. I think the National League West is a little overrated. I think the DBacks match up well against LA and San Diego. The Giants are the laughing stock of the league (having recently sent Zito to the bullpen). The only problem they really face is the Rockies.

The DBacks will have/have had trouble with the Rockies this year because they are very similar teams. Young players, good pitchers, solid to great defensive teams with strong futures ahead of them. The DBacks and Rockies could become a minor Red Sox/Yankees tandem here in the NL West if they keep their core players in tack. The rivalry won't have the history of Sox/Yanks, but they could dominate the division the way the Sox and Yanks have in the last decade. It should be a lot of fun to watch.

So if history holds sway over the current state of baseball, then the Mets can get back on their feet here in the desert. If not, they're in for a long weekend. Looks like: Micah Owings (who is SO fun to watch) against Maine, Webb vs. Pelfrey and Haren vs. Figueroa. Although my buddy swears its Santana/Haren on Sunday. I think it would have been if not for the rainout. Apparently they were talking about the Santana/Haren matchup yesterday on ESPN Radio. I don't see how the rotation winds up that way though. Maybe they didn't expect Santana to pitch last night? I don't know.

Alou is Hurt AGAIN and Nady's on the Trading Block

According to SI.com, Moises Alou's ankle is going to get an MRI today to see how bad he's hurt.

In a seemingly unrelated story, Xavier Nady is on the Pirates trading block.

How do we join these two stories, Omar? Make it happen! The thing that might keep this deal from happening is the mediocre talent the Mets have in the minors. Its hard to ship off prospects that you have to pretend are good and our prospects that ARE good we want to keep. Unless you can move one of our relievers (and they've all struggled this year) for Nady, I don't see it happening. But Omar's a creative GM. He'll find a way.

Stupid Fox Game of the Week

The Fox Game of the Week blacks out my MLB Extra Innings package, which is BS, so I missed the Mets game vs. the Braves today. Apparently they won and Maine pitched well.

The Mets need John Maine in a big way this year, especially with Pedro hurting again. Oliver Perez is basically a .500 pitcher right now. Until he gets the consistency he needs, he's going to be amazing some days and piss poor the others. As good as he's looked at times this year, his last start against the Nats he was not so good. So John Maine has to step in and be the number 2 behind Santana and number 2 pitchers win games.

Hopefully this good start gets Maine back on track to where he was the beginning of last year. Oh, and its great to see that Wright broke out of his funk.

More on Aaron Heilmann...

So people might think that what Heilmann did last night was what I was trying to point out. But its not. See last night Heilmann gave up a grand slam to a last place team. A team currently ranked 29th out of 30 in the SI Power Rankings. That's not the same at all.

Last night Heilmann made a bad pitch to a decent hitter and he clubbed it. I thought Milledge had a great at bat against Heilmann, laying off all but one change up in the dirt. Lopez put a good swing on a mediocre pitch and beat the Mets. Its upsetting, but these things will happen.

What I was trying to point out with my last post was a statistical anomaly that indicated Heilmann has trouble in a very specific situation. It was pointed out to me that I mentioned 15 situations out of 167 or so that Heilmann was in in 2006-2008. Yes, I agree. Its a small sample size, but its the only sample we've got. It was a very specific situation - as specific as say, hitting with 2 outs and a runner on second against a left-hander.

My point was that there are situations where Heilmann excels - tie games (last night was the exception), up by one, close games late - and some where maybe not so good (down by one late).

Anyway, taking one of two against a Nationals team that's reeling right now isn't going to help the Mets get ready for the Braves. Its very early in the season - still April in fact - but we've spent the whole month inside our division and have basically a .500 record to show for it. We need to get hitting boys! Pagan is doing great filling in. Church has looked good against righties and lefties. I've really been impressed. Wright was hot till they got to DC. Reyes and Wright sleepwalked through this short Nationals series. We need to get moving! Wake up guys! Wake up bats! And somebody figure out what to do with Delgado.

A little know stat about Aaron Heilmann...

So tonight, Aaron Heilmann came in with a one run deficit and for the third time this season turned it into a 3 run deficit.

I'm not going to say that Heilmann is bad. I'm not going to tell the Mets to trade him. That would be stupid. Aaron Heilmann is VERY GOOD in tie game situations. He's better than most closers in one run LEAD situations, but when your team (the Mets) is down by one, call in someone other than Heilmann.

I decided to look over the last two seasons. Heilmann has come into a game where the Mets were down by one 15 times since the start of the 2006 season. In 8 of those instances, he held the deficit to one. In the other 7 instances, he's added two runs to the opposing team's score. And its always two runs. Its eerie.

Thanks to Retrosheet.org by the way. Check this out:

5/23/06 - came in Phillies 6, Mets 5, left Phillies 8, Mets 5
7/23/06 - came in Astros 5, Mets 4 left Astros 5, Mets 4
8/22/06 - came in St. Louis 7, Mets 6, left with the same score
8/25/06 - came in Phillies 4, Mets 3, left with Phillies 4, Mets 3
9/22/06 - came in Nationals 3, Mets 2 and held it there
So he finished 2006 - 4 holds and 1 loss in the down 1 situation

5/1/07 - came in Marlins 3, Mets 2, left Marlins 5, Mets 2
5/3/07 - came in DBacks 4, Mets 3, left DBacks 4, Mets 3
7/1/07 - came in Phillies 3, Mets 2, left Phillies 5, Mets 2
7/28/07 - replaced Feliciano with score Nats 4, Mets 3 with runners 1st and 2nd, left Nats 6, Mets 3
8/21/07 - came in San Diego 5, Mets 4, left with the same score
9/20/07 - faced the Marlins 4, Mets 3, left with the same
9/26/07 - came in Nats 7, Mets 6, left with the same
He finished 2007 - 4 holds, 3 losses

That makes him 8 and 4 coming into this year.

4/6/08 - at Atlanta. Came in down 1-0, gave up the two run homer to Teixiera
4/8/08 - last home opener at Shea, despite Schoenweiss' best efforts the Mets are only down by one to the Phillies, 3 to 2. Walk, Bunt, Single, Walk, Double, and Heilmann turns that into a 5-2 deficit.
4/21/08 - tonight. He gives up a tough error to Lee, hits Ramirez, fights with Fukodome and losses (but fought him hard), gets DeRosa, gets Soto, and has Cedeno on the ropes when he gives up the base hit and they're down by two.

So he winds up 8 and 7.

Again, I'm not saying that Heilmann is bad. I'm saying get rid of him. I'm just saying: Maybe rethink using him down by 1.

Pedro's Down; Wright and Beltran are starting Hot...

So by now we've all seen it. Pedro was getting hit, he looks like he tries to be too fine on a pitch and he comes away from it grabbing his butt and leg. Well, he'll be out a couple weeks at least (I assume), and now we're looking at El Duque and Pelfrey in the rotation. There's some chatter about Claudio Vargas. I got to watch Claudio a lot over the years and especially during his time in Arizona. He's a solid pitcher but nothing special. If when El Duque comes back, he's anything like he was most of last year, I say go with Duque. But that's still a ways off. So for the first couple weeks, most teams don't need a fifth starter. The Mets though don't have a lot of off days to start the season.

I guess we'll see. There's nothing more we can do that wait and see.

The way the rotation is shaking out, it looks like it might be Oliver Perez for the home opener. I wouldn't mind that at all. I've never seen Oliver Perez live and in person. That should be fun. I guess it depends on how they treat Pedro's spot in the rotation. I don't imagine that they'd start their stop-gap starting pitcher solution for the home opener. I suppose you could pitch Santana on extra rest, but I don't think you want to screw with his rhythm. Again, I guess we'll see.

I actually just read something that suggested Jorge Sosa for the open spot in the rotation. Sosa did an excellent job as a fill in last year. I don't see any reason why they shouldn't use him. I don't think he's got the stuff - he throws 90% sliders - for an extended stay in the rotation. But that slider is good enough to get him through most line-ups twice or three times. Sosa out there for 5 or 6 innings should be a good sight better than a lot of other options.

How about David Wright and Carlos Beltran to start this season? Crazy hot. Wright was a MACHINE tonight and Beltran wasn't far behind. Wright hit the homer and so did Beltran but the umps took it away from him. It was clearly over the wall on the replay, but whatever.

Hooray for baseball!

THE SEASON IS HERE!

Oh yeah, baby. Here we are. The Major League Baseball season has officially started. The Saux started the season by splitting their series with the A's in Japan. Johan Santana made his first start as a Met yesterday and he looked pretty darn good. Sure, it was against the AAA Marlins, but still, he looked good.

It was good to see Angel Pagan getting it working yesterday too. Who would have thought that our Opening Day roster would include Angel Pagan and Brady Clark? That seems ridiculous to me. I'm kind of upset we let Ruben Gotay slip away, as I think he was an adequate backup. I'm guessing the Mets tried to get him to clear waivers, but Atlanta stole him away. Don't get me wrong, I'm not crying myself to sleep at night, but he's better than some of our other back up options.

It just seems weird to me that they'd play game with Gotay but leave someone like Brady Clark who was a minor league invitee on the 25 man roster.

Anyway, the season's started and now I get to update this blog a LOT more often. Can't wait. Let's Go Mets!!